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Financial considerations of public inventory holdings in developing countries AgEcon
Adelman, Irma; Berck, Peter.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Consumption; Investments; Public finance; Risk.
Ano: 1991 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43739
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Flood Insurance Demand along the Gulf and Florida Coast AgEcon
Lee, Jihyun; Petrolia, Daniel R.; Ferraez, Will T..
The objective of this research is to identify factors that influence both the decision (yes or no) and level of flood insurance among coastal homeowners in the southeast U.S. Recently flood damage has dramatically increased (Flood), and Crossett et al. (2004) report that coastal populations are growing. And in spite of rising costs of living in coastal areas, people are willing to pay more for access to ocean views and other natural amenities associated with coastal living (Bin and Kruse, 2006). Although the federal government provides flood insurance programs and encourages at-risk residents to insure their property from flood, rates of uptake remain low (Burby, 2001; Kunreuther, 2006; Landry and Jahan-Parvar, 2009). The National Flood Insurance...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Flood Insurance; Risk; Insurance Demand; Environmental Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/99239
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Food Safety. Commodity Science Point of View AgEcon
Zalewski, Romuald I.; Skawinska, Eulalia.
The paper addresses "food safety" and 'food quality' from the position of commodity and food science rather than economy. The various descriptions of both terms in literature are reviewed in connection with customer/supplier ability to evaluate food safety and quality by examination of various characteristics. Food safety has been described as opposite to food risk. Differences in perception of food risk by customer, producer/supplier and official agencies are discussed in this paper. The objective safety (and quality) of food can be evaluated using three categories of food risk (biological, chemical and physical) measured on a seven step intensity scale by producers and official agencies but not by customers. This leads to formulating food safety policy...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Food safety; Food quality; Risk; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Q13; Q18; M31.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25734
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Food security policy in a stochastic world AgEcon
Adelman, Irma; Berck, Peter.
Food security may be increased by variance-reducing strategies, by food aid, or by development strategies. This paper uses a Korea CGE model, subjected to random fluctuation in world-prices and domestic food productivity, to evaluate these policies. We find that poverty-reducing development strategies are the most effective food-security strategies.
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper Palavras-chave: Agricultural policies; Food aid; Prices; Risk; Stochastic models.
Ano: 1989 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43664
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FORWARD CONTRACTING OF INPUTS: A FARM-LEVEL ANALYSIS AgEcon
Perry, Janet E.; Mishra, Ashok K..
Forward contracting of inputs in production agriculture is becoming increasingly important as more farmers attempt to manage risk. Using a logit model and farm-level data, this analysis estimates the effect of factors on the probability of a producer using forward input contracting. Results suggest that use of contracting in selling of crops and livestock, technology, farm size, geographic location, participation in government commodity programs, and use of extension services are important factors affecting the choice to forward contract inputs.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Forward contracting; Inputs; Risk; Marketing.
Ano: 1999 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14729
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Forward Hedging Under Price and Production Risk of Wheat AgEcon
Xing, Liu; Pietola, Kyosti.
This paper estimates optimal hedging ratios for a Finnish spring wheat producer under price and yield risk. The forward contract available for hedging fixes the price and quantity at the time of sowing for a delivery at harvest. Autoregressive models are used to obtain point forecasts for the conditional mean price and price volatility at harvest. Expected yield and yield volatility are estimated from the field experiment data. A range of coefficients of absolute risk aversion are used in the computations. The results suggest that yield volatility is large and it dominates the price volatility in the optimal hedging decisions of the Finnish wheat producers. Nevertheless, a potential for large negative correlation between the price and the yield decreases...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Hedging ratio; Risk; Forward contract; Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Q14.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24467
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From Risk Assessment to Knowledge Mapping: Science, Precaution, and Participation in Disease Ecology Ecology and Society
Stirling, Andy C.; Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Sussex; a.c.stirling@sussex.ac.uk; Scoones, Ian; Institute for Development Studies, University of Sussex; i.scoones@ids.ac.uk.
Governance of infectious disease risks requires understanding of often indeterminate interactions between diverse, complex, open, and dynamic human and natural systems. In the face of these challenges, worldwide policy making affords disproportionate status to “ science-based” risk-assessment methods. These reduce multiple, complex dimensions to simple quantitative parameters of “outcomes” and “probabilities,” and then re-aggregate across diverse metrics, contexts, and perspectives to yield a single ostensibly definitive picture of risk. In contrast, more precautionary or participatory approaches are routinely portrayed as less rigorous, complete, or robust. Yet, although conventional...
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports Palavras-chave: Ambiguity; Ignorance; Participation; Precaution; Risk; Uncertainty..
Ano: 2009
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Genetic correlation between Prothrombin G20210A polymorphism and retinal vein occlusion risk BJMBR
Zou,Yuanyuan; Zhang,Xi; Zhang,Jingyi; Ji,Xiangning; Liu,Yuqing; Zhao,Shaozhen.
The aim of this study was to perform an updated meta-analysis to quantitatively investigate the association between G20210A polymorphism of Prothrombin gene and the risk of retinal vein occlusion (RVO), based on the available publications with inconsistent results. We utilized the Stata software to perform the heterogeneity test, association test, Begg's and Egger's tests, and sensitivity analysis. We searched three on-line databases (PubMed, Embase, and WOS) and obtained a total of 422 articles. Based on our selection criteria, 24 case-control studies were finally enrolled in this overall meta-analysis; a subgroup analysis by the factors ethnicity, control source, and RVO type was done. Through the association test of overall meta-analysis, we did not...
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article Palavras-chave: Prothrombin; Retinal vein occlusion; Polymorphism; Risk; Meta-analysis.
Ano: 2019 URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-879X2019000400604
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GLOBALIZATION, CROPPING CHOICES, AND PROFITABILITY IN AMERICAN AGRICULTURE AgEcon
Blank, Steven C..
The paper discusses the linkages between the "globalization" of agricultural markets over recent decades and the decisions being made by individual farmers and ranchers in the United States. It is noted that technological advances lead to globalization of agricultural commodity markets and profit pressures. The continuing profit squeeze in agricultural production is having a significant effect on the cropping choices of America's farmers. When possible, acreage is being shifted out of low-revenue-generating crops and into higher-revenue-generating crops. This shift makes crop portfolios more risky over time, thus encouraging farmers to consider diversifying out of agriculture.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Cropping choices; Globalization; Profit; Risk; Safety-first; Agricultural Finance; International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2001 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15013
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Globally Flexible Modeling of County-Level Acreage Response for Primary U.S. Field Crops AgEcon
Cooper, Joseph C.; Arnade, Carlos Anthony.
This study takes the standard acreage response model that stems from an expected utility framework, accounting for both price and yield variability, and nests it within a flexible semi-nonparametric (SNP) model consistent with farm-level decision models for computationally tractable results. We use county-level data to estimate the response of farmers’ planting preferences to changes in revenue and other variables.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Acreage response; Elasticities; Field crops; Semi-nonparametric; Risk; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use; Production Economics; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/103240
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Grain Contracting Strategies to Induce Delivery and Performance in Volatile Markets AgEcon
Wilson, William W.; Dahl, Bruce L..
One of the impacts of higher prices along with greater volatility in futures and basis is that there is pressure for an escalation in cash contracting for grain. This volatility has resulted in an unprecedented level of contracting with growers in recent years. There is a wide array of cash contracts with varying terms. There is also a growing realization of growers not delivering on contracts, in part due to escalation in postcontract prices. These are evolving as major strategic issues for buyers and the marketing system, particularly as buyers seek to use such contracting strategies as an element of risk mitigation. There are three purposes of this article. First is to provide a broad survey of contract terms used in grain contracting with growers....
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Grain contracting; Risk; Volatility; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; C15; D81; Q12.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53082
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Hedging a Government Entitlement: The Case of Countercyclical Payments AgEcon
Anderson, John D.; Coble, Keith H.; Miller, J. Corey.
This research evaluates whether the introduction of countercyclical payments creates an incentive for program crop producers to hedge the expected government payment using futures and/or options. Results indicate that some level of countercyclical payment hedging is optimal for risk-averse decision makers. However, optimal hedge ratios depend on planting time expectations of marketing year average price as well as on what crop, if any, has been planted on countercyclical payment base acres. These results suggest that the ability to hedge may make these payments more decoupled but also illustrate the distortion of producer behavior induced by farm programs.
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Countercyclical payment; Expected utility; Hedging; Policy; Risk; Demand and Price Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty; Q12; Q13; Q18.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6299
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HOW MUCH DO FARMERS VALUE THEIR INDEPENDENCE? ESTIMATING THE RISK AND AUTONOMY PREMIA ASSOCIATED WITH PRODUCTION CONTRACTS AgEcon
Key, Nigel D..
A farmer's decision to contract or produce independently depends on the distribution of income under both arrangements, and on attributes associated with both business arrangements. Risk-averse farmers should be willing to pay a risk premium for the reduction in price risk provided by a contract. Farmers with a preference for "autonomy" should be willing to pay a premium for certain attributes associated with independent production, such as the right to make management decisions and own the commodity they produce. The benefits to growers from contracting (such as risk reduction) may be over-estimated if the non-pecuniary benefits enjoyed by independent producers are not accounted for. This study uses national survey data to estimate the risk premium, the...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural contracts; Autonomy; Nonpecuniary benefits; Risk; Farm Management.
Ano: 2002 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19688
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How to Evaluate and Interpret a Scientific Article About Therapy Or Therapeutic Procedures? International Journal of Morphology
Otzen,Tamara; Manterola,Carlos; García-Domínguez,Maricela.
Regardless of the subject area and design used, it has been verified that between 40% and 60% of the studies published in biomedical journals are articles about therapy or therapeutic procedures (TP). Anyone writing a manuscript related to therapy or TP or reading an article of this type must demand at the very least a clear, precise and concise objective with respect to the research conducted, explicit mention of the design used with the respective inherent methodological details, and the mention and execution of statistical tools and the measures of association, or at least the numbers needed to calculate these values. The aim of this manuscript is to present a synthesis of the fundamental elements for the correct writing, reading and assessment of such...
Tipo: Journal article Palavras-chave: Therapeutics; Therapy; Subheading; Risk; Clinical Trial; Publication Type; Cohort Studies; Meta-Analysis; Publication Type.
Ano: 2017 URL: http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0717-95022017000200061
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IMPACTS OF POLICY REFORM ON HILL FARM INCOMES IN UK AgEcon
Acs, Szvetlana; Dallimer, Martin; Hanley, Nick; Armsworth, Paul R..
Hill farming in UK is experiencing very difficult economic circumstances and many farmers rely on subsidies provided by the government for a large fraction of their income. The Peak District National Park is used as a case study to examine how farmers might respond to current policy changes – in particular, the move from area- and headage-based payments to the Single Farm Payment. The objective of this paper is thus to develop production models that predict how farmers will respond to changing policy framework conditions. For this purpose socio-economic surveys were carried out on 44 sample farms. Based on these surveys six representative farm linear programming models was developed, which represent typical farm types in the uplands in the Peak District....
Tipo: Book Palavras-chave: Changes in subsidies; Risk; Survey; Farmers’ reaction; Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43182
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INCOME AND CAPITALIZATION RATE RISK IN AGRICULTURAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS AgEcon
Schnitkey, Gary D.; Sherrick, Bruce J..
Tipo: Journal Article Palavras-chave: Farmland Prices; Farmland Returns; Capitalization Rates; Risk; Asset Bubbles; Land Economics/Use; Q14.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/109472
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Incorporating issues of risk and uncertainty into Choice Modelling experiments AgEcon
Wang, Xuehong; Rolfe, John.
Many policy issues, as well as policy funding and management choices, have elements of risk and uncertainty. This means that choice experiments, such as those used in choice modelling (CM), may need to frame trade-offs so that risk and uncertainty are included. This research aims to explore some methodological approaches to identify and treat uncertainty in CM experiments. A review of theoretical models, as well as a case study application in the CM technique reported by Roberts et al. (2008), suggests that including uncertainty information in the choice sets should influence responses significantly. However, key challenges remain to define and describe the elements of risk and uncertainty that are to be included in a choice experiment, to communicate the...
Tipo: Report Palavras-chave: Choice experiments; Risk; Uncertainty; Information; Framing.; Environmental Economics and Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2009 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/94812
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INCORPORATING RISK IN EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS AgEcon
Shaik, Saleem; Helmers, Glenn A..
Using a non-parametric linear programming approach, our contribution is (1) to examine the impact of incorporating risk in efficiency analysis and (2) to compare the efficiency measures with and without risk for continuous and rotation cropping systems. The model uses Nebraska cropping system data for the period, 1986-2000. Results indicate lower efficiency gains are realized with the incorporation of risk. The t-test at the 5% level of significance examining if efficiency measures are significantly different from one is also reported.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Risk; Efficiency; Non-parametric; Cropping Systems; Risk and Uncertainty; O3; C6; Q1.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/35063
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Indian Farmers' Valuation of Crop Yield Distributions: Will poor farmers value 'pro-poor' seeds? AgEcon
Lybbert, Travis J..
Potential poverty traps among the rural poor suggest a need to reduce poor farmers' vulnerability by stabilizing crop yields and limiting yield losses. Advances in agricultural biotechnology enable breeders to address this need more directly than ever before with crops that reduce production risk by tolerating climate fluctuation or resisting biotic stresses. Will poor farmers who could benefit most from less vulnerability choose to purchase such risk-reducing seeds? I use data from a household survey and experiment involving farmers in India to infer their valuation of changes in the mean, variance, and skewness of yield distributions. I conclude that these farmers value increases in expected yield in the yield distribution but seem indifferent about...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Poverty; Risk; Biotechnology; Experimental Economics; Farm Management; C9–; D8; O1; Q1.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19160
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Infectious diseases in oyster aquaculture require a new integrated approach ArchiMer
Pernet, Fabrice; Lupo, Coralie; Bacher, Cedric; Whittington, Richard J..
Emerging diseases pose a recurrent threat to bivalve aquaculture. Recently, massive mortality events in the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas associated with the detection of a microvariant of the ostreid herpesvirus 1 (OsHV-1 µVar) have been reported in Europe, Australia and New Zealand. Although the spread of disease is often viewed as a governance failure, we suggest that the development of protective measures for bivalve farming is presently held back by the lack of key scientific knowledge. In this paper, we explore the case for an integrated approach to study the management of bivalve disease, using OsHV-1 as a case study. Reconsidering the key issues by incorporating multidisciplinary science could provide a holistic under-standing of OsHV-1 and...
Tipo: Text Palavras-chave: Bivalve; Disease management; Epidemiology; Multidisciplinary; Risk.
Ano: 2016 URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00314/42537/41912.pdf
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